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Soulia: What the numbers show about race and crime

by Dave Soulia, for FYIVT.com

In May 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice quietly released a detailed statistical bulletin titled Criminal Victimization, 2023, summarizing violent crime trends across the country. It is the most recent official federal data available from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), and while it received little mainstream attention, the findings are extensive — and at times, uncomfortably revealing.

Drawing on data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), the report covers a wide swath of crimes, from simple assaults to robbery and sexual violence, using both demographic breakdowns and victim perceptions of the offender. While most headlines focus on crime “upticks” or general trends, buried within the tables is a deeper pattern the federal government rarely highlights — and which news outlets even more rarely report: the racial dynamics of violent crime in America.

The Big Picture: Crime Rates Falling, Slowly

First, the good news. Violent crime remains far lower than it was in the early 1990s. In 2023, just under 6 million violent incidents were reported through the NCVS — meaning about 1.36% of Americans over the age of 12 experienced some form of violent victimization. That’s down from 1.51% in 2022, and much lower than the 3–4% range typical in the 1990s.

The most common form of violent crime continues to be simple assault, making up over 60% of incidents. Firearm involvement was reported in about 7.6% of violent crimes, and strangers committed just over 36% of reported incidents.

In total, the report paints a picture of a nation that has become, by historical standards, significantly safer — but still faces persistent violence, particularly in certain communities.

Victims and Offenders: What the Data Says

One of the most revealing sections of the report is Table 13, which estimates the number of violent crimes by the race or ethnicity of both the victim and the offender — as perceived by the victim.

This isn’t guesswork. The NCVS is the largest crime survey in the United States, based on interviews with over 200,000 people annually, and it’s been conducted in largely the same format for decades.

According to the 2023 report:

In terms of raw numbers, White victims experience far more interracial violence than Black or Hispanic victims — and the numbers confirm a long-standing pattern: Black offenders commit violent crimes against White victims at significantly higher rates than the reverse.

Even more striking is what happens when you adjust these figures per capita.

Blacks make up about 12.5% of the U.S. population, while Whites account for over 58%. Yet despite being a far smaller group, Black-on-White crime occurs more than three times as often as White-on-Black — and per capita, it is roughly 15 times more likely.

The pattern also holds for Hispanic-on-White violence, which occurs at roughly four times the per capita rate of White-on-Hispanic violence.

Intraracial Crime: Still Most Common

It’s important to note — and the report does — that most violent crime remains intraracial. That is, people tend to harm those of their own group more than others.

For example:

Those figures are still larger than any of the interracial combinations, which makes sense given patterns of residential segregation and social proximity.

But the key point is this: when interracial violence does occur, it is not symmetrical, and not even close.

Limitations of the Data: What the Numbers Don’t Show

While the 2023 NCVS report offers the most comprehensive look at crime victimization in the country, it’s important to recognize what it doesn’t measure.

The NCVS captures crimes that are reported by victims in household surveys — but it excludes two major categories:

  1. Homicide, which by definition has no living victim to survey
  2. Institutionalized populations, such as inmates, homeless individuals, and those in group quarters or long-term care

That means the report misses a significant portion of urban crime, particularly in areas where trust in law enforcement is low and crimes go unreported. It also doesn’t fully reflect the violent crime dynamics among marginalized or transient populations, where crime rates may be even higher.

Additionally, the offender’s race is based on the victim’s perception, not on confirmed arrest or conviction data. While still useful for understanding patterns, this can introduce some uncertainty.

In short, the NCVS is a powerful tool — but it’s not the whole picture. It tells us a lot about how crime is experienced, but less about how it is prosecuted or prevented.

Final Thoughts

The Criminal Victimization 2023 report isn’t flashy. It doesn’t offer sensational headlines or moral crusades. It simply documents what people across the country report — who’s hurting whom, how often, and under what circumstances.

And if we’re serious about public safety, criminal justice reform, and race relations, then we need to be honest about what the numbers show — even when they don’t conform to political narratives.

This report is the government’s own work. Its findings are clear. It’s up to the public to read it — and to demand that policymakers do the same.

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