By Paul Bean
Following loss of their supermajority in the 2024 General Election, Democrat leaders in the State House seem willing to reconsider or even potentially abandon some climate and environmental policies they have long championed.
This change in perspective comes following the legislature’s shake up this last election cycle with Democrats losing more seats in Vermont than in any other state. “With 13 Republicans now, the [Senate] Majority realizes they do not have the votes to pass what was contemplated,” said Scott Beck, the newly elected Senator and Minority Leader from Caledonia County. “What came out of the Act 18 Clean Heat Standard process would be a pretty significant fee on the usage of carbon fuels.”
A recent study funded by the Public Utilities Commission found that the Clean Heat Standard could raise fuel prices as much as $4 a gallon on heating fuel.
“The question is ‘what now?’ and that’s really getting into the predictions,” said Beck by phone.
The legislature and the majority as a whole have reached a pivotal point where they will have to decide whether or not they want to attempt to implement the CHS and its associated fees or if they instead want to incentive an energy transition using only tax incentives and/or a different fee structure than proposed in Act 18, Beck explained:
“The interesting development is they’re at a decision point. Here is a fork in the road, on one path the use of ‘carrots,’ research and development, and then the other path is the carrots and sticks approach.” Carrots and sticks meaning taxes and fees, he later explained to me. “When the legislature was very different, they chose the taxes and fees approach and that was proven to be very unpopular by this last election. They will have to make a decision. Either keep trying the same direction, or go another route”
Yesterday, Governor Scott’s Press Secretary Amanda Wheeler told VDC “The Governor has been clear since the policy was first discussed that he does not support the CHS. We know that 70% of Vermonters rely on fossil fuels to heat their homes, so to change this, we need to help people through the transition, not punish them”
Senator Beck appeared to be aligned with Governor Scott’s office, “Vermonters spoke in this last election, and they don’t think it’s appropriate to tax someone because of the fuel they use to heat their homes. They do however think it is appropriate to incentivize them. If I am optimistic, I hope the majority party goes that route. The problem for some senators is some districts, might believe a fee structure is necessary; they are still of the opinion that if you tax people the right amount of money they’ll shift”
It does seem however, members of the Senate Majority are willing to take the “carrot only” route. Anne Watson told VTDigger. “Staying focused on affordability, I think, is key. If we can figure out a policy that helps make energy more affordable for Vermonters and oh, by the way, it’ll also help the climate — amazing.”
When asked about potential changes to the Clean Heat Standard, Anne Watson told me today on short notice that she “Not sure yet – waiting to see what the report says,” referring to a report on the CHS to be released January 15.
Vermont House Republicans have already come out front and said they are going to introduce a bill to repeal the Global Warming Solutions Act, a law passed in 2017 that tied Vermont to specific climate goals outlined by the Paris Agreement and the Climate Alliance. The law mandates that Vermont cut greenhouse gas emissions by specific targets in 2025, 2030, and 2050. It also includes a provision that allows the state to face lawsuits if officials fail to create plans to meet these deadlines.
Changes to the Clean Heat Standard must come first through the Senate before it gets to the House. VDC will be following this closely and providing updates.