Thinktank: “Policymakers should proceed with caution” concerning migration trends
By Michael Bielawski
Campaign for Vermont Prosperity released a report last week on interstate migration patterns using data from the U.S. Census and Internal Revenue Service. Ultimately not enough new people are moving in to offset the older population who are dying.
The number of people moving in is “insufficient to keep pace with the deficit of deaths to births,” according to their presser. And it is “contributing to the state’s demographic problems.”
The 26-page report can be read here. It concludes, “With little international immigration into Vermont and with deaths exceeding births, domestic migration does play an important role in Vermont’s overall population growth, or lack of growth, and the ability of businesses, non-profits, and government to accomplish their goals.”
Vermont economist Art Woolf authored the report, he urged that policymakers should focus on “longer-term trends for a better look at any patterns of migration.” He continues, “This is particularly true during the pandemic timeframe when migration patterns departed from their historical trends.”
He added that the trends from during COVID-19 “had mostly run their course.”
The stats are concerning when examining income trends because those moving in on average are making less money than those who are leaving. During COVID-19, this trend reversed but analysts are unsure if this will continue.
The report states, “Vermont’s population growth is very low, which has contributed to a stagnant labor force, making it difficult for current and potential employers to find workers. There are more births than deaths and international immigration is low. From 2000 to 2023 more people have left Vermont than moved into the state.”
“Rebalancing our incentive programs”
Housing availability will continue to be a challenge, and new housing may target specific sectors of the workforce.
“There are real demographic issues that our state is facing and focusing on availability of housing and rebalancing our incentive programs to target specific occupations that are critical to our social infrastructure should be the priority,” the presser states.
CFV President Pat McDonald added, “The demographic challenges in Vermont are not improving and we believe the inaccessibility of housing is preventing more young people from moving here or staying here.”
She suggested that an unwise tax policy could hurt the state. She said, “Adding tax surcharges for the wealthy also does not seem to be the answer as there are real questions about tax flight and what that might do to our overall tax base and the state’s revenue streams.”
“Proceed with caution”
The presser continues, “At the same time, it is unclear how mobile high-income earners are in a post-covid world and policymakers should proceed with caution when considering additional revenue from these taxpayers.”
It states that “Census and IRS data needs to be used and interpreted with care since both underlying sources of migration data were likely influenced by temporary population movements due to the Covid pandemic.”
The report itself states that this trend will continue if policy changes aren’t made.
“Vermont’s slow population growth over the past two decades is unlikely to change unless the state experiences many more people moving in than has been the experience of the last two decades,” it states.
The report found that before COVID-19 the age groups with net in-migration were among 26-45-year-olds, with a net migration of plus 208. However, for those under age 26 migration was negative 507.
“Further, the report found that only 4% of Vermont’s population is comprised of immigrants, compared to an average of 14% nationally,” the presser states.
The author is a writer for the Vermont Campaign for Vermont