politics

VPIRG online poll has Balint, Nolan ahead in primary races

Redic ‘wins’ ranked-choice vote mock ‘election’

The Christina Nolan for U.S. Senate campaign published this ad on its Twitter feed today. The poll it references was conducted by the Vermont Public Interest Research Group.

By Guy Page

An online poll conducted by the Vermont Public Interest Research Group (VPIRG) this month has Sen. Becca Balint far ahead of Lt. Gov. Molly Gray in the race for the Democratic nomination for Vermont’s sole seat in Congress, and Christina Nolan leading other GOP candidates for U.S. Senate by a wide margin. 

Both races will be decided in the August 9 primary. 

The results may be a reflection of the political views of the pro-VPIRG “electorate” who participated in what VPIRG billed as its “first ever Mock Ranked Choice Voting Vermont Primary Election.” The liberal/progressive advocacy organization is a strong supporter of legislation pushing ranked choice (i.e. “instant run-off”) voting, a vote-counting process that favors third-party candidates. 

In an RCV election, if a candidate receives more than 50 percent of the first choices, they are declared the winner, VPIRG explained. If not, the candidate with the fewest first choices is eliminated, and the voters who ranked that candidate first have their second choice counted when the ballots are tabulated again. This process continues until a candidate emerges with majority support.

In the VPIRG poll, Balint received 59% and Molly Gray 29%, with two other candidates in single digits. These results likely reflect Balint’s strength among VPIRG and ranked-choice voting supporters. 

In the Republican race for U.S. Senate, former U.S. prosecutor Christina Nolan held a 67% lead over Gerald Malloy (20%) and Myers Mermel (14%). The potential bias of these results is even more pronounced in Republican races, because it is less likely that Republicans – especially conservative Republicans – participated in great numbers in the VPIRG ranked choice voting ‘mock election.’

The ranked-choice voting effect ‘worked’ on behalf of GOP candidate for Congress Ericka Redic. In that race, VPIRG explained, Redic had 39 percent of the votes in the first round, compared to 32 percent for Anya Tynio, and 29 percent for Liam Madden. Under RCV, Liam Madden was eliminated from the race and those who ranked him first had their second-choice votes applied. This then produced a majority winner, with Ericka Bundy Redic getting 54 percent of the second-round vote, compared to Anya Tynio with 46 percent. 

In the Democratic primary for Senate, Rep. Peter Welch had 76 percent of the vote to 15 percent for Isaac Evans-Frantz and 9 percent for Niki Thran.

No reliable, professionally-executed public polling for the three races has been publicly released. 

Categories: politics

26 replies »

  1. “The ranked-choice voting effect ‘worked’ on behalf of GOP candidate for Congress Ericka Redic. In that race, VPIRG explained, Redic had 39 percent of the votes in the first round, compared to 32 percent for Anya Tynio, and 29 percent for Liam Madden. Under RCV, Liam Madden was eliminated from the race and those who ranked him first had their second-choice votes applied. This then produced a majority winner, with Ericka Bundy Redic getting 54 percent of the second-round vote, compared to Anya Tynio with 46 percent.”
    Correct me if I am wrong, but Erica Redic won either way, didn’t she ?

  2. We all know polls can be skewed very easily depending on who is sought to be questioned, the wording of the questions asked and how the answers are heard and recorded. We also know we can point to many recent polls that have been proven to be bogus by the actual outcomes of the matters polled.

    This polling is reported by VPIRG Organization. Reading the information on their Web Page, they seem to be another group of activists who have been indoctrinated to believe ALL THE RIGHT NARRATIVES on ALL THE RIGHT SUBJECTS. I’m sure they must have “highly woke” status with ALL THE RIGHT PEOPLE.

    Do we benefit from polls and those who seek to be “fortune tellers” or “knowers of the future” or is this just another way to be controlled and manipulated? How about we all just look up each Candidate running to see who shares our beliefs/views and who would best serve in the position they are seeking? Then … we can each CHOOSE and truly VOTE FREELY!

  3. Of course VPIRG would report Balint ahead. She is as left wing as they are. The real choice here is Molly Gray, the moderate democrat. Everything fits. She is from Vermont, grew up on a farm in Vermont, parents are native Vermonters, educated in a rural Vt grade school, high school, UVM and Vermont Law School. Balint calls Molly a “corporatist democrat”. That bomb says a lot more about Balint than it does Molly Gray. Remember if Balint gets in then she will be the front runner for Sanders seat when he retires. This is the biggest election we have had in a long time because whoever wins will mostly likely and eventually be our Senator. The choice is obvious: A native Vermonter vs a NJ transplant who has come here and jumped into politics. It is time to stop this flow of people into Vermont who come because they think we are political idiots. Let’s elect a real Vermonter to represent us.

  4. Ms. Nolan supports abortion thru the 2nd Trimester.
    She supports Ketanji Brown Jackson. The new Supreme Court Justice who is soft on Child Porn Crime and can’t define what a Woman is.
    She says Scott did a great job with the mask and jab mandates that injured Vermont Children physically and psychologically. They caused great financial hardship to Vermont families. Scott said you weren’t Essential, but planned parenthood and VT Liquor Store employees were.
    The betrayal of those who say they are 100% Pro Life is proven by their support for Nolan.
    Many of them who I have worked beside and supported for years.
    Gerald Malloy is 100% Pro Life and Constitutional. I am proud to work with him. I am more proud to call Gerald and Stacey our friends.
    We will defeat Nolan in the Primary. Join us and give the unborn a voice.
    Or vote for Nolan, she brags about defending less than 1% of them. So do the people that support her.
    You can’t be Pro Life part time.

    • YES!! Thank you Jim!

      VOTE FOR THE HIGH VALUE AND PROTECTION OF ALL HUMAN LIFE!!

      U.S. Senate Candidate, Gerald Malloy U.S. Representative Candidate, Erika Redic
      Vermont Lieutenant Governor Candidate, Greg Thayer are ALL 100% Pro-Life, from Conception to Death

      • Good luck with them. Might be nice, but it ain’t gonna happ’n, Cap’t.

        Therefore: Enjoy Leahy for the next six years & know you shall NEVER see a Republican from VT in the U.S. Senate. EVER.

        Again…..enjoy, we’ll all live with the consequences & there will be plenty.

      • I may have spoken too soon on Erika Redic. I am told she is now caving on her original Pro-Life position. I’m open to hear if anyone has information.

    • Nix the lying – Nolan does NOT support abortion through the 2nd Trimester, only through the 1st – she is woman (thought you democrats were falling over yourselves to send a woman to represent VT) & is GAY (thought you democrats have stated to not vote for a gay candidate would render one “homophobic), etc.etc. etc. Hypocrisy yet again.

      Again we see democrats & RINOS ready to turn the political “crown” over to Leahy, the OLD WHITE MALE D.C. SWAMP MONSTER who wants to:

      ENSHRINE ABORTION AT ANY STAGE OF PREGNANCY FOR ANY REASON IN THE VT CONSTITUTION

      but because Nolan has PUBLICALLY STATED ON THE RECORD that she would concede to having abortion allowable in the first trimester…..we should INSTEAD elect the aged white MALE yet again who supports this slaughter at ANY time for ANY reason. NONSENSICAL.

      Aged white males in the Vermont have caused enough destruction —-

      NOLAN FOR U.S. SENATE –

      Or just crown Leahy the D.C. insider yet again………………………….

      WOW…….NEVER SAW DEMOCRATS & RINOS RUNNING THIS SCARED IN VT. EVER. Fun to watch.

      • She is also a native Vermonter. Like Molly Gray. That is the very best reason to support her.

      • Ms. Gaffney,

        You made a mistake on your Vermont History. The downhill slide with our State Senate choice began with Leahy.

        Why do you focus so much on gender and color as qualifications? Leaders should be chosen by merit and their beliefs.

      • In case you missed it Kathy, or you just don’t care, Nolan stated twice during the VPR Senatorial Debate that she supports abortion thru the 2nd Trimester. It’s available for you and all to watch anytime you choose. I don’t post lies.
        Maybe you should pay attention to the race, Leahy isn’t running for anything.
        The Aged White Males that have caused enough destruction in VT are Democrat, Socialist and Marxist. Including Phil Scott.
        Gerald Malloy states emphatically every time he is asked, 100% Pro Life from conception and 100% Constitutional.
        You brought up the phrase Rino, I call them transrepublican.
        Nolan has given Real VT Republicans more than enough reason not to vote for her.

      • Pat Leahy is not running and it’s his senate seat that’s up for grabs. Thank God Leahy is done. The next old white guy to go needs to be the Peter Principal winner, Petey Welch. If he wins, I think he would be 84 at the end of his first term. Old democrats never die, they just look like they did. All the democratic leaders in congress and the senate are in their 80s.

      • This is not a horse race. I’m done with the “lesser evil” vote and will vote for candidates that are true conservative Republicans who promise to uphold our U.S. and state constitutions and are 100% pro life.

      • This is WHY the Vermont State Republican Party has no credibility or trust.

        “Just vote for the best Republican” no matter if they REALLY ARE RHINOS and don’t believe or act out the BASIC PRINCIPLES of a Republican.

        IF YOU STAND FOR NOTHING, YOU”LL FALL FOR ANYTHING!!

    • “You can’t be pro-life part time” – Amen, Jim! Anya Tynio is also a Constitutionalist and 100% defender and protector of life.

  5. Ms. Nolan is taking a very big political jump from US Attorney to US Congress/person. She would have been a better fit for Vermont Attorney General. Sometimes you just have to go with the people closer to your ideals. If she was trying for AG, I could support her but I’m not sure she is in line for what I think a republican should be in congress where laws are mind for us little people to follow. We need to follow our Constitution to get out of the mess the Dem/progs have created for the country and for Vermont. I’m going for Malloy first and nothing against Ms. Nolan but, I want a republican is congress representing Vermont. Support for the latest Supreme court liberal who was soft on pedophiles and her support for abortion in the 2nd term just turns me off. If she wins the primary, I will reconsider.

  6. Seems to me, Christina Nolan has accepted the endorsement of VPIRG.

    Isn’t like getting the endorsement of the DNC ?

  7. BY the way, Erica Redic & Christina Nolan often campaign at stops together…but you all know that because you attend some of these stops personally to hear straight from the candidates’ mouths their platforms & positions on issues.

    That’s all correct, right?

  8. “Mock Ranked Choice”? How appropriate! In 1932 only TWO states didn’t vote for FDR as they smelled a RAT, whose “Incredible Transition” (heard THAT recently?) to a “Planned Economy” (NIRA/NRA/etc.) FAILED miserably & most was struck down by the SCOTUS, the “Schecter Chicken Case” brought reams of laughter in the nation’s highest court. Those TWO states? Maine & Vermont..FDR, Henry Wallace, Harry Hopkins & the waves of Communists BALLOONED the Swamp yet the unemployment levels NEVER CHANGED until the outbreak of WWII, look it up. I’ll take Nolan even if she DOES cut her own hair in the dark with dull scissors, better a “RINO” than another Moonbat “Progressive” Democrat, all we need do is VOTE AND bring along an apathetic neighbor who, I’m SURE, loves the inflation inflicted upon us by the current crop of no-business-experienced MORONIC bureaucrats.

    • The difference between a RINO and a liberal dem/prog is razor thin. Look at Romney, I had to vote for him as the lesser of two evils. To this day he makes me sick watching him work against Trump and the republicans. There’s 10 of them voting for a gun control package because a manioc shot up a school while the police stood by and did nothing. Our own governor throws out a few vetos to appease the republicans but has called us all racist and was the first governor to pass and sign worthless gun control but enough to open the floodgate for weird energy Phil and bow tie Martin. He locked down the state and coerced people to take the poison to keep their jobs. All unconstitutional and more. I say no more RINOs in the primary. Build the republicans in the house and senate, that’s where the power is.

  9. Between Nolan and the Bint, could Vermont become anymore self-absorbed and secularized? It’s like sailing into Sodom …. It’s become fatiguing to have the alphabet people continuously shoveling their anit Christian, anti-family world view in our faces. These, ahem, people make rhinos shine.

  10. I’m done even considering a RINO, period. We see how they have repeatedly failed us on so many issues. Now we have one who refuses to admit she voted for Biden and who backs a weak on crime SCJ? If you RINO voters like where this country is headed then more power to you. If my withholding a vote for her costs her the election I won’t lose one minute of sleep over it. At least Petey won’t disappoint us because we know exactly what he is.

  11. I’m sure that all the people that voted for John Cornyn (R-Texas), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), are real happy to get stabbed in the back by these Republican senators who they voted for to protect their constitutional rights. If she wanted to put Ketanji Brown Jackson on the Supreme Court then you could just add her to the list.

  12. Yep…..get ready for Always Correct Mother Becca to solidify her seat in THE CATHEDRAL.

  13. If Vermont Voters make the choice to vote Ms. Balint into any government position after seeing and hearing her Marxist/Socialist positions and voting record, they deserve the destructive consequences they will reap for themselves.

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