A new study finds that driver behavior — not terrain, traffic, or infrastructure — explains the state’s disproportionately high fatal crash rate.
by VDC Staff
Vermont is not a state anyone would expect to appear near the top of a national danger ranking. It has no megacity gridlock, no sprawling freeway interchanges, and a population of just over 640,000. Yet a new five-year analysis places Vermont 11th in the country for preventable fatal road crashes per capita — a rate nearly three times higher than neighboring Massachusetts and New York.
The study, conducted by Florida-based personal injury firm Blakeley Law Firm, examined federal crash records from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System across all 50 states between 2020 and 2024. The word “preventable” carries a specific, narrow meaning in this context: the researchers counted only crashes attributed to speeding, impaired driving, or distracted driving — behaviors rooted in driver choice, not road conditions, weather, or mechanical failure. Crashes caused by factors outside a driver’s control were excluded.
“Even with fewer vehicles, driver behavior continues to define safety outcomes.”
By that definition, Vermont averages 51.2 such deaths per year — a figure that, when adjusted for its small population, produces a rate of 7.92 fatal crashes per 100,000 residents. That number places Vermont just below Missouri (7.95) and just above Idaho (7.91), in a tightly clustered tier that sits well below the extremes of New Mexico (16.39) and Montana (15.88) but far above the low-risk states concentrated in the Northeast and upper Midwest.
States where drivers are making the deadliest choices
Top U.S. states with the highest preventable fatal crash rates (per 100,000 population, 2020–2024)
| Rank | State | Avg. annual fatal crashes | Per 100,000 population |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico | 347.2 | 16.39 |
| 2 | Montana | 177.4 | 15.88 |
| 3 | Wyoming | 82.0 | 14.09 |
| 4 | South Carolina | 661.2 | 12.50 |
| 5 | Louisiana | 540.8 | 11.74 |
| 6 | Arizona | 626.6 | 8.51 |
| 7 | Kentucky | 382.8 | 8.45 |
| 8 | Texas | 2,528.2 | 8.39 |
| 9 | Colorado | 487.4 | 8.33 |
| 10 | Missouri | 492.2 | 7.95 |
| 11 | Vermont | 51.2 | 7.92 |
Data source: U.S. Department of Transportation fatal crash data (2020–2024), analyzed by Blakeley Law Firm.
Breaking down Vermont’s crashes by type reveals which driver behaviors are most lethal in the state. Impaired driving accounts for the largest share, averaging 25.6 deaths per year. Speeding follows at 21.4 annual deaths. Distracted driving — texting, inattention, or any other diversion from the road — accounts for 4.2 deaths per year, the smallest of the three categories but still a significant figure for a state of Vermont’s size.
Vermont crash type breakdown vs. national average
Average annual fatal crashes by cause (2020–2024)
| Crash type | Vermont (avg. annual) | U.S. average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impaired driving | 25.6 | 126.28 | 79.7% lower |
| Distracted driving | 4.2 | 60.52 | 93.1% lower |
| Speeding | 21.4 | 212.9 | 89.9% lower |
Data source: U.S. Department of Transportation fatal crash data (2020–2024), analyzed by Blakeley Law Firm.
In raw terms, Vermont’s numbers look modest — and they are. The state falls well below the national average in every crash category. Distracted driving fatalities run 93% lower than the U.S. norm; speeding deaths run nearly 90% lower; impaired driving deaths run about 80% lower. The elevated per-capita rate is not a story of unusually dangerous roads but of a small population that amplifies every fatality in the statistics.
The comparison with neighboring states makes the numbers harder to dismiss. Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New York — all densely populated, with far more vehicles on the road — each post rates below 3.0 per 100,000. Vermont’s rate of 7.92 is 2.99 times higher than Massachusetts’s 2.65, the lowest in the nation. Iowa (3.74) and Minnesota (3.37) also perform significantly better. The gap is not easily explained by geography or road design alone; Vermont and its neighbors share similar winters, similar rural terrain, and similar interstate infrastructure.
Vermont compared to the lowest-risk states
| Rank | State | Per 100,000 residents | Difference from Vermont |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vermont | 7.92 | — |
| 46 | Iowa | 3.74 | 2.12× lower |
| 47 | Minnesota | 3.37 | 2.35× lower |
| 48 | New York | 2.94 | 2.69× lower |
| 49 | Rhode Island | 2.93 | 2.70× lower |
| 50 | Massachusetts | 2.65 | 2.99× lower |
Researchers adjusted all figures for population using annual estimates, allowing fair comparison across states of wildly different sizes. Texas, for instance, logs 2,528 preventable fatal crashes per year — but when divided by its 30 million residents, its rate of 8.39 per 100,000 is only slightly higher than Vermont’s. The methodology, which averaged five years of data to smooth out year-to-year fluctuations, was designed to identify structural patterns rather than anomalous events.
The study was conducted by Blakeley Law Firm, a Florida personal injury practice that represents clients injured in motor vehicle accidents and families who have lost relatives to negligence. The underlying crash data is publicly available through the U.S. DOT’s Crash Data Acquisition Network, and the full research datasheet has been published here.
Methodology note: “Preventable” in this study refers strictly to crashes in which the FARS record attributes the fatality to speeding, impaired driving, or distracted driving — behaviors considered entirely within driver control. Crashes caused by road conditions, weather, mechanical failure, or other external factors are not included. Per-capita rates use annual population estimates averaged over 2020–2024.