Evslin: I was wrong about ‘The Science’

by Tom Evslin

Pandemic Lesson #1: ‘The Science’ must always be challenged.

But that doesn’t mean all challenges are right.

In the beginning, scientists in Wuhan, the only scientists who had direct access to Covid data at the time, said that the disease couldn’t spread from person to person; it only spread when infected food was eaten. The World Health Organization (WHO) endorsed that “science”. It was wrong.

Tom Evslin

Once China and WHO changed their view and conceded that infection could spread from person to person, they also said that it spread mainly on surfaces. We had a mini-epidemic of handwashing and surface cleaning. Mary and I still have most of a big bottle of sanitizer left. We took our mail out of the mailbox with rubber gloves and quarantined it three days before opening. Dr. Fauci and the US CDC did not recommend masking at that time. Still to be determined is whether they didn’t recommend masking because they didn’t want the public to gobble up the limited supply of surgical masks or because they truly didn’t believe that airborne infection was significant.

An interesting side note is that epidemiologists had not kept up with the latest physics about tiny droplets. The physics embedded in their literature only acknowledged larger droplets, which are more likely to alight and persist on surfaces, and ignored tiny droplets which stay in the air – it’s those tiny droplets that the virus travels on. The “science” which emphasized infected surfaces was wrong. It’s a good thing it was challenged. It’s a good thing that we learned that small weave masks are effective. What if no one had been allowed to question “the science”?

Dr. Fauci and other experts said it would take at least two years to develop an effective vaccine. They were being optimistic based on experience up until then. Fortunately, they were wrong.

When the vaccines first got emergency approval, they were billed as being 85-95% effective. Most people, including me, thought that meant getting vaccinated would reduce the chance of getting infected by 85% to 95% and could well snuff out the disease like what has almost happened with polio and smallpox. Those estimates were the best available; but they were wrong, especially as the virus mutated. I urged vaccine requirements for air travel and some professions like medicine thinking that vaccinated people were largely not spreaders. I was wrong. The “science” was wrong. Experience has shown the vaccines effective at preventing hospitalization and death – a good thing; but not nearly as effective at preventing spread. For the least vulnerable, it is beginning to appear that mild infection is more effective than a shot at preventing hospitalization. The world changes and “the science” changes as well.

There is nothing wrong with the fact that we learn more as time goes on or that old truths become invalid as the world changes. What is wrong is to think that “the science” should go without challenge; that would be catastrophic. What is wrong is to think that any legion of fact-checkers can decide what we ought to read; that is also catastrophic. Science flourishes on challenge. New discoveries always tread on old truths. Progress depends on challenge – even if most challengers are wrong.

The author, an author, entrepreneur, former Vermont state cabinet officer, lives in Stowe. He founded NG Advantage, a natural gas truck delivery company. This commentary is republished with permission from his blog, Fractals of Change.

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16 replies »

  1. I would like to add that what is wrong is that a large amount of people were threatened with job loss for not wanting to take an experimental drug, which has not been approved by the FDA. We have laws that protect people from being forced to participate in an medical study specific to experimental drugs. Our government did nothing to protect people, nothing. The truth is out, as revealed in the most recent release of Pfizer documents, the drug is not safe for pregnant women and their babies. People around the world are coming down with hepatitis associated with the gene therapy shots. The FDA just pulled the J&J shot due to thrombosis. Thankfully, I did not fall victim to the propaganda and coercion. I feel sorry for all those people that experienced more extreme side effects, and those fired or court marshalled for refusing to comply.

  2. What is wrong is when our government imposes mandates (i.e. mask and vax) based on beliefs (scientific or otherwise) they are effectively establishing a religion. Western medicine for example, is a belief system. Masks are religious uniforms. Woke yet?

  3. The author, unfortunately, is late to the punch. Actual scientists with actual critical thinking skills knew from the outset that the vax trials were shoddy and didn’t demonstrate much of anything. But slippery messaging from public health authorities–characterized as “evolving” science–kept stringing people along.

    Now that the hospitalization rate for fully vaxxed Vermonters has eclipsed that for the unvaccinated–something that censored experts also saw coming–what will be the next update to public health messaging?



    • His fear over took his reasoning like 70% of Vermonters. While he now realizes his mistakes, at the time he scolded those who had done the research early on. The truth was out there but was ignored. Now there are millions of people walking around with poison in their veins wondering what will happen to them in the long run. It’s great to admit you were wrong but now that the damage is done, it’s a shallow way of climbing out from behind the guilt after so many people including children have been harmed. And what about those people who you spread your fear to convincing them to get the jab. The government, of which Mr. Evslin was once part of, fanned the fear, ignored the real doctors, the real treatments and scientists and forced people to submit by coercion and shaming by calling a pandemic of the unvaccinated. They even went after children to inject them with an unapproved experimental elixir, not an approved vaccine, not even a vaccine. The errors made and the horrors for some people now and some in the future can thank these people for their misery. The new bumper sticker, The Government Lied and people Died. I’m sorry this all had to happen but you should wear your guilt along with everyone who did this.

  5. The process we call science is easy. It’s a means of rejecting claims based on observation. Dick Feynman has a great quote about it, but you can summarize it as “If it disagrees with experiment, it’s WRONG.”

    THE Science — by contrast — is the message that filters to you from a bunch of people terrified of losing their jobs, through a tightly controlled and highly politically motivated media.

    Anybody could watch the early disease tearing through China and know that the claim that “it doesn’t spread from person to person” is comically wrong. Frank Drebin, nothing-to-see-here wrong.

    When The Science tells you that cow flop tastes like cupcakes, you don’t have wait for The Science to change before you stop eating.

  6. “If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It does not make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it does not make any difference how smart you are, who made the guess, or what his name is — if it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong.”
    — Richard Feynman

  7. The science wasn’t wrong it was politicized. If you ever read and analyzed the global data with an open mind exercising critical thinking, youd know our media, pharmaceuticals and health officials were pushing a narrative counter to the science. If you read the statement the pharmaceuticals submitted to the fda prior to EUA you’d know the shots could not protect against infection or transmission and therefore were never vaccines. Im sorry for your mass psychosis.

  8. Glad to hear you admit you were wrong. I still wonder why an intelligent person got so caught up in all of this and didn’t do their own research; that’s scary to me.

    So now what? We still have vax mandates in effect at businesses, hospitals, the state etc for workers. We still have vax mandates in effect at entertainment venues and restaurants among others . Why not do some “repentance “ by working to overthrow these and by ensuring that it never happens again?

  9. Welcome back to reality Mr. Evslin – Discernment and logical thinking is vital to surviving the attacks against us. Crimes against humanity will not prevail and those involved and responsible will face God’s judgement.

  10. I didn’t believe most of that #fakescience from the beginning . Too many things were just wrong , bad science or , bold-faced lies. No group of pharma people and biologists can get a brand NEW vaccine through development and human trial testing in 6 months. None.
    The FDA said , on their own pages , that homemade masks , store bought masks and crappy chinese made plastic fiber masks were USELESS in stopping microscopic virus particles. The CDC admitted the same later on.

    There’s so MUCH phoniness to this whole Plan-demic thing that I dont have time for but , most of you know the story. The TRUTH will come out soon.

  11. He is also wrong about the vaccine reducing the symptoms. Do you know of anybody out there that was contacted by the state or federal gov. about their symptoms, vax or not. The revision of the vax story was made up after the obvious failure of the vaccine.

    I feel sorry for all the people getting the vax and now living with a ticking time bomb. Next time do not trust the gov. under any circumstances, Do you home work and lace it with some common sense. Now apply this to the Ukraine before your sorry about that.

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